Kabul changed hands early, reflecting the three major mistakes of the United States!

Kabul changed hands "early", reflecting the three major mistakes of the United States!

　　 The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is obviously a major misjudgment.

　　文 | Haike

　　 "Saigon Moment" history repeats itself. Yesterday (August 15), a U.S. military helicopter took off from the roof of a building of the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. It was photographed by the media. It was also taken from the U.S. Embassy in Saigon in 1975 when the U.S. was withdrawn from South Vietnam. On par.

"Saigon Moment" history repeats itself "Saigon Moment" history repeats

　　Although the Taliban are advancing at the speed of at least two or three provincial capitals in one day, they have reached as close as 50 kilometers from Kabul on August 14. However, the United States is still predicting-"The Taliban may conquer Kabul within 90 days."

　　 Hehe, 90 hours have not arrived. Strictly speaking, the Taliban have already invaded Kabul after 24 hours. What is even more unexpected is that Afghan President Ghani had a big hug with Taliban members at the Presidential Palace.

　　 What about 90 days? The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is obviously a major misjudgment. According to Uncle Hai, the United States had at least three misjudgments before.

  1

　　 First of all, the United States misjudged the Afghan government forces. The U.S. decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was not thought of yesterday, the day before yesterday, or the day before yesterday, but as early as 2011 after Osama bin Laden was killed. At that time, it was believed that the United States could at least prevent the Afghan Taliban from entering the city by fostering a pro-American government and training the Afghan army to integrate an overall pro-American Afghanistan.

After the Obama administration killed Osama bin Laden, they decided to gradually withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. After the Obama administration killed Osama bin Laden, they decided to gradually withdraw US troops from Afghanistan.

　　I don’t know that the US president has changed from Obama to Trump and from Trump to Biden. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has not yet been completed. However, in 2020, the United States sent the then Secretary of State Pompeo to meet with the Afghan Taliban in Doha, Qatar, and finally reached a consensus. To be honest, Uncle Hai does not know the consensus between the United States and the Afghan Taliban. What is the secret? Work. However, Trump subsequently announced that he would complete the US military withdrawal plan from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021.

Afghan government forces Afghan government forces

　　 After Bi came to power, he advanced the timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan to August 31. His heart and mind is that the 380,000 Afghan government troops, fully equipped with American equipment and armed to the teeth, can withstand more or less for a while to ensure the safe withdrawal of US troops. It is best to guard most of the capital cities of Afghanistan, especially large cities such as Kabul and Kandahar. After all, it is said that the Afghan Taliban are armed with less than 100,000 people.

　　 How do you know that the Afghan government forces are so unattended-the Afghan Taliban is like a broken bamboo, and within a few days, it has occupied all the major cities in Afghanistan.

  2

　　Secondly, the Biden administration made a misjudgment of the U.S. military, or that it used its troops incorrectly. True, Trump claimed to complete the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan on September 11, 2021, and Biden claimed to complete the withdrawal 11 days in advance. They all seemed to be confident.

　　 However, before completing the withdrawal, how to withdraw step by step, this is a university question-it seems that these two elders have no knowledge in this aspect.

The U.S. forces underestimate the difficulties of evacuating Afghanistan

　　Analyzed from the perspective of military science, it is often more difficult to withdraw troops than to advance troops, especially from the battlefield. Either Trump or Biden can claim that the United States won the Afghanistan War, at least not. Judging from the various links in the U.S. withdrawal and the performance of the Afghan government forces at the time of withdrawal, the U.S. is currently defeating, fleeing, and collapsing in Afghanistan.

　　 Under such circumstances, the time has come to test the comprehensive capabilities of a military force. How to clean up the remnants and withdraw from the battlefield with dignity, how to cover the withdrawal of non-military organizations from the battlefield, and how to help allies and friends withdraw from the battlefield?

In May of this year, an Afghan interpreter protested at the gate of the US Embassy in Afghanistan. In May of this year, an Afghan interpreter protested at the gate of the US Embassy in Afghanistan.

　　 Looking at it now, let alone helping friends withdraw, how to help the compatriots of the U.S. Embassy in Kabul has become a very scratching issue. In desperation, Biden announced that in order to withdraw troops, 5,000 troops would be added to Afghanistan. However, is such an increase in troops effective? It is not yet fully visible.

　　3

　　 Finally, the United States misjudged the Afghan Taliban itself. Prior to this, the US government conducted various negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan. As early as 2015, reporters from the US media asked the White House-is the Taliban considered a terrorist organization? If it is a terrorist organization, how can the US government negotiate with a terrorist organization?

On January 28 of that year, the White House spokesperson replied: “The Afghan Taliban cannot be regarded as a terrorist organization, but an armed insurgency organization.” However, at that time, the US media disclosed that the United States’ double standards for the Afghan Taliban were very obvious. -There is no Taliban in the US State Department’s list of "foreign terrorist organizations";

　　Afghanistan Taliban is listed on the list of the U.S. Treasury Department and the Anti-Terrorism Department.

Biden Biden

　　 In other words, in the United States, for its own purposes, the understanding of the Taliban, or the United States' definition of the Taliban, are different. In this case, it is difficult to ensure that the decision-making makers, such as the President of the United States, do not make wrong judgments.